In Today's Email:
- Market Pulse: IRS tax‑filing extension, surging warehouse demand, and the latest CRE “Fear & Greed” index
- 4‑Step Forecast Guide: How to build a 12‑week cash‑flow model from historical data to future projections
- Scenario Planning: Base‑case, downside, and upside models to stress‑test your runway
- Weekly Check‑Ins: A simple process for updating and acting on your forecast every week
- Small Business Taxes For Beginners: Listen to the latest Common Cents Show for an interview with a "Tax Phd" Roger Pearson, Bring your notebook, because he's dropping gold for business owners.
The Small Business Pulse
IRS Grants Tax‑Filing Extension
The IRS announced a three‑month extension for 2024 tax filings—pushing the deadline to July 15. Many small businesses will get extra breathing room on cash‑outflow timing.
Trade Tensions Fuel Warehouse Demand
Prologis reports that U.S. warehouse space is in higher demand as importers re‑shore inventory from China, driving up rent and occupancy rates nationwide.
Commercial Real Estate Fear & Greed Index Rises
The Q1 “Fear & Greed” metric for U.S. commercial real estate ticked up to neutral, signaling cautious optimism among CRE investors—but volatility remains.
Why this Matters To You: Tax‑deadline relief buys you a grace period to shore up reserves. Meanwhile, higher warehouse rents and mixed CRE sentiment underscore the importance of forecasting both fixed costs and potential rent hikes. In today’s shifting economy, a robust cash‑flow forecast is your best defense.
Build a Bulletproof Cash-Flow Forecast in 4 Steps
"A Goal Without A Plan Is a Wish"
—Antoine de Saint‑Exupéry
You’ve got new variables—extended tax deadlines, rising rent pressures, and CRE uncertainty—on your horizon. A dynamic forecast lets you pivot quickly and avoid nasty surprises. Here’s how to build one:
Consolidate Historical Data
- Gather 12 months of actual revenues, COGS, payroll, rent, loan payments, and taxes.
- Note seasonal peaks/troughs (e.g., holidays, slower summer months).
Create Your Forecast Template
- In Google Sheets or Excel, list projected weekly cash inflows and outflows for the next 12–16 weeks.
-
Use separate columns for:
- Operating Revenue
- Variable Costs (COGS, commissions)
- Fixed Costs (rent, utilities, loan payments)
- Tax Obligations (including the adjusted July 15 deadline)
Model Multiple Scenarios
- Base Case: Your conservative best estimate.
- Downside Case: 20% drop in sales + 10% rent increase (see warehouse trends).
- Upside Case: 10% sales bump + delayed tax payment.
Monitor & Update Weekly
- Set a recurring 30‑minute calendar block each Friday to plug in actuals and adjust next week’s projections.
- Highlight any week where the forecasted ending balance dips below your minimum cushion (e.g., 2 weeks of runway).
Why This Works
You’ll spot shortfalls before they happen—giving you time to delay discretionary spending, negotiate payment terms, or ramp up marketing. In a world of shifting trade dynamics and real‑estate volatility, an up‑to‑date forecast is your business’s survival guide.
SMALL BUSINESS TAXES FOR BEGINNERS
Until next week,
Micah
www.micah-logan.com
