The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.5 in December 2025, its highest point since August and above the 52-year average of 98. More notably, the Uncertainty Index dropped 7 points to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024. After a turbulent year of tariff adjustments and policy shifts, small business owners are finding their footing.
KEY NUMBERS
• 54% of owners rate business health as "good"
• 24% expect better business conditions (up 9 points)
• 20% cite taxes as top concern (highest since May 2021)
While national data shows companies keeping headcounts flat, small business owners are bucking the trend. A Pipedrive survey of 100,000 SMB owners found nearly 60% plan to hire additional employees in 2026, with half of those increasing their recruitment and payroll budgets to do so.
KEY NUMBERS
• 60% of SMB owners already raised salary budgets 5%+ in 2025
• 48% plan to spend even more on talent in 2026
• Top roles: customer service, skilled trades, and tech
What it means: The challenge isn't budget it's finding qualified candidates. Labor quality remains the top problem cited by NFIB members. Businesses need clear hiring criteria and faster decision-making to win talent in a competitive market.
3. AI Moves from Tool to Strategic Asset
2026 is being called a "defining era" for small business AI adoption. According to a new LinkedIn report, AI has shifted from optional tool to strategic necessity. Meanwhile, U.S. Chamber data shows 96% of small business owners plan to adopt emerging technologies soon, with AI use having doubled since 2023.
KEY NUMBERS
• 68% of small businesses currently using AI (Goldman Sachs)
• 80% report increased efficiency and productivity
• 51% cite better data for decision-making as key benefit
What it means: AI is becoming the "augmented worker" that helps small teams punch above their weight. But 42% say they lack resources to deploy AI effectively. The competitive edge goes to those who decide quickly which processes to automate and actually implement.
🧠 THE TAX YOU NEVER SEE ON YOUR P&L
Weighing Seth Meyers GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers
"The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision."
- Maimonides
What is decision debt? The backlog of unmade, unclear, or postponed decisions that compound until momentum stalls.
It's the pricing change you've been "thinking about" since October. The underperformer you haven't addressed. The software migration that's been "next quarter" for three quarters.
Why it matters:
• Leaders spend 37%+ of their time on decisions and over half that time is wasted (McKinsey)
• Organizations that clarify decision rights early reduce project timelines by up to 25%
• Every unclear decision spawns meetings, which spawn interpretations, which spawn workarounds
The small business problem: In larger organizations, indecision hides in committees. In your business, every unmade decision traces back to you.
You are the bottleneck.
5 SIGNS YOU'RE ACCUMULATING DECISION DEBT
1. Same topics resurfacein every meeting without resolution
2. Team waits for permissioninstead of taking action
3. Endless clarifying questions because no one knows what was decided
4. Projects stall at approval waiting for a call that never comes
5. You feel busy but not productivemotion without momentum
The hidden cost: Revenue isn't lost in one big event. It's skimmed by delay one stalled project, one confused team member, one frustrated customer at a time.
🔧 THE FRAMEWORK
The 30-Minute Decision Audit
No retreat required. No consultant needed. Just 30 minutes, a clear process, and the willingness to make calls. Run monthly to prevent debt from accumulating.
STEP 1: Surface the Backlog (10 min)
Review your last 3 meeting agendas, project trackers, and email threads.
Look for:
• Topics that keep reappearing across meetings
• Requests "pending approval" for weeks
• Initiatives described as "we're still figuring that out"
• Questions your team has asked more than once
STEP 2: Sort by Type (5 min)
Use Jeff Bezos's framework one-way doors vs. two-way doors:
The 70% rule: If you have 70% of the information you'd want, decide. Waiting for 90% is almost always slower than deciding and course-correcting.
For each, document: What was decided • Who owns execution • When you'll evaluate
STEP 4: Schedule the One-Way Doors (5 min)
Don't decide now but set a specific date and time to decide.
Before that date, identify: What information is actually missing (not "nice to have")
• Who needs to be consulted
• What "good enough" looks like
The deadline creates accountability. Without it, one-way doors stay perpetually "under consideration."
🏆 QUICK WINS
Three Questions That Kill Indecision
When you or your team gets stuck, run through these. They'll either resolve the decision immediately or reveal what's actually blocking progress.
1. "What's the cost of waiting another week?"
If "not much" you have a real decision to think through. If ongoing costs emerge (lost opportunities, team confusion, customer friction) you've just built urgency.
2. "What information would actually change my decision?"
We often delay for information that wouldn't change our choice anyway. If you can't name specific data that would flip your decision, you have enough to proceed.
3. "If I'm wrong, how hard is it to reverse?"
The two-way door test in action. Most decisions that feel heavy are actually quite reversible. Name the reversal path, and the decision feels lighter.
Post these where your team can see them. The best way to prevent decision debt is to make decisiveness a cultural norm not an occasional intervention.
"Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you're probably being slow. Being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure."
- Jeff Bezos
📋 WHAT TO IMPLEMENT THIS WEEK
This week's action: Block 30 minutes. Run the Decision Audit. Make every two-way door decision on the spot. Schedule deadlines for the one-way doors. Watch what happens to your momentum.
Clarity creates speed. Speed creates opportunity. Opportunity belongs to the decisive.
